The UAE was up 20% in June. The rest of the world was flat.

The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry published its half-year figures in July, and the headline is dull in a useful way: CHF 12.8 billion of exports in the first six months of 2026, down 0.7% on the same period last year. Flat.

June on its own was not flat at all. Exports rose 11.2% to nearly CHF 2.4 billion, and volumes across the half were up 2.3% — some 162,000 more watches leaving Switzerland than a year ago. More watches, marginally less money, which tells you the growth is happening below the very top of the price ladder.

The UAE number

The Emirates finished the half up 1.6%. In June alone the market was up 20.4% year on year. A single month is a single month, and shipment timing can distort it — but a swing of that size in a market this concentrated is not noise, and it matches what we see on the desk: more enquiries, faster decisions, and more clients buying at the level where a piece has to be sourced rather than selected.

The caveats the FH itself makes

The Federation's own commentary flags two things: uncertainty in the Middle East, and the tariffs the United States may impose on Swiss goods. Either would reshape these numbers quickly. Anyone quoting the half-year as a trend is quoting a snapshot taken between two open questions.

What we take from it

Stability at the top, volume returning underneath, and a regional picture that increasingly favours where we sit. If you have been waiting for the market to "settle" before buying or selling, this is roughly what settled looks like.